One-Day Uptick Not Expected to Break Gas Prices' Fall

A 37-day streak of daily declines in the price of gasoline ended Thursday, but despite that blip motorists in several parts of the country are saving a dollar or more a gallon compared with a year ago. The AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report said the national average for regular unleaded ticked up less than a penny on Thursday to $2.29 a gallon, ending a steady decline that lasted more than five weeks.

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Here's the good news for motorists: The national average for regular is $1.05 less than it was a year ago and the lowest at this time of year since 2004. At $2.79 a gallon, premium gas is 93 cents lower than a year ago, and diesel fuel, at $2.50, is $1.25 less. Average prices for regular gas are $1 or more lower than a year ago in several states, with the biggest declines in Oregon and Vermont, at $1.21 less; Connecticut, $1.22; and Hawaii, $1.33. Hawaii's average, now $2.90, is less than $3 a gallon for the time in several years.

AAA said low global oil prices and an abundant supply of crude more than compensated for an increase in demand for gasoline during the summer, when driving in the U.S. peaks. Pump prices typically decline during the fall when demand drops and refineries switch to winter gas blends that are cheaper to produce. But after operating at or near capacity during the summer, many refineries will need to shut down for seasonal maintenance.

"This past summer was characterized by relatively high driving demand and refineries operated at higher capacities for longer periods of time," AAA said in a release. "As a result, many are expecting the fall maintenance season to be heavier than usual. Barring any unexpected spikes in the price of crude, retail averages are not expected to climb this fall due to the market's current oversupply."

GasBuddy.com, which recently predicted that the national average for regular would dip below $2 before the end of the year, said that prospect now looks even more likely.

"I continue to believe that the national average will fall under $2 per gallon, perhaps even sooner than expected," senior petroleum analyst Patrick DeHaan said in a statement. "Barring any major shifts in oil markets, gasoline prices are expected to continue moving lower in the days ahead as supply and demand become the driving force."

Regular gas averaged less than $2, according to AAA, in six states on Thursday, including Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, South Carolina and Tennessee. New Jersey barely squeaked under $2 at $1.999, and Tennessee was at $1.996. Alaska, at $3.09, and California, $3.02, were the only states averaging more than $3 a gallon. GasBuddy said nearly one out of four stations nationally is selling regular for less than $2 a gallon. A year ago, no stations were less than $2.50 and nearly 96 percent were more than $3.